Foolproof Gambling Quizlet
The simplest way to understand the gambler’s fallacy is to consider the toss of a coin.Assuming a normal coin is being tossed, with no way of manipulating the result, the outcome is completely random. There are two possible results – heads or tails – and both results have an equal chance of happening.
Foolproof Gambling Quizlet Rules
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As such, if a coin was tossed ten times in a row then you might logically expect to see it land on heads five times and on tails five times. Indeed, there is every chance that such a sequence would happen. However there is also every chance that the coin would land on heads ten times in a row, or tails ten times in a row.
Foolproof Gambling Quizlet Key
There are many people that believe that if a coin did land on heads ten times in a row, then it would be more likely to land on tails on the next toss. While it’s not too difficult to see why people would believe that, the belief is wrong; the coin is still just as likely to land on heads as it is on tails on the next toss.
The mistaken belief that because heads has come up ten times in a row it’s somehow less likely to come up on the next toss is basically what the gambler’s fallacy is. There’s actually no reason whatsoever why the next toss is less likely to be a heads. To understand why, you need to consider probability and the concept of independent events.